“They simply state that Europe’s inventories are virtually full.” The current lower “natural gas prices do not imply the region’s winter energy crisis is over,” Gloystein said. But while it might help Europe avoid a “severe shortage” this winter, “short, temporary shortages” are still very possible in late winter if new supplies are disrupted, warned Henning Gloystein, the director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy with headquarters in New York. That combination of increased supply and reduced demand is what has helped tame gas prices somewhat, said experts. The result: Over the first eight months of the year, Europe consumed 10 percent less gas than in the same period in 2021. ![]() High prices until recently likely also made people more conservative about their energy usage, he said. By November, the European Union had filled nearly 95 percent of its gas storage capacity, surpassing its 85 percent target for the end of the year.Īt the same time, Europe witnessed an uncharacteristically warm autumn, reducing the need for heating in homes and offices, according to Marzec-Manser. A worker prepares to pump petrol into a car at a Repsol petrol station in Madrid, Spain, on September 7 A full tank … for nowįearing that Russia might cut off all gas supplies to Europe, the continent has been buying and storing as much gas as it can over the past few weeks. The steep drop in crude prices, caused by the G7 cap on the price of Russian oil carried by Western-insured ships, isn’t expected to last either: Oil is expected to cost $92 on average in 2023, according to the United States Energy Information Administration, 30 percent higher than 2021 levels. “The factors that have brought gas prices down aren’t likely to continue in 2023.” ![]() “In fact, we will absolutely see prices go up again,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at London-headquartered commodity intelligence service ICIS. And experts don’t expect the price to ease up much more. The bad news? Gas today still costs more than double what it did at the end of January. The price of a barrel of Brent oil, the benchmark for crude prices, has fallen sharply in recent days, down from a high of nearly $128 in early August to $76 on December 11. The Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas price, stood at about $148 per megawatt-hour on December 11, a sharp drop from a peak of $338 in late August. To be sure, there is some good news: Gas and petrol prices are lower than they were earlier this year. ![]() The short answer: Probably not for the next two years, at the very least. Germany’s government has decided to pay energy bills for all citizens and small and medium-sized businesses in December.Īs Europe and other parts of the northern hemisphere brace for a difficult winter, there’s one central question on the minds of people around the world: When, if at all, will gas and petrol prices return to pre-war levels? It’s a question that Al Jazeera posed to leading energy economists and analysts. France, where President Emmanuel Macron warned in August that the era of “abundance” was over, has witnessed fuel shortages and long queues at petrol stations in recent weeks. Nine months after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, Britain is preparing for a long recession on the back of sky-high energy prices.
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